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Shock General Election Result – Lessons for Risk Management

The shock UK general election result, confounding numerous and consistent predictions over the last few weeks, serves as a powerful reminder about the hazards of making predictions about the future.  More specifically, people appeared not to appreciate the sensitivity of our electoral system to very small changes in voting patterns in key marginal constituencies; meaning any prediction has to be treated with extreme caution.

Turning to the practise of risk management, where assessing the likelihood of future events is a core component; we must be very conscious of similar non-linear situations in the complex organisations that we are responsible for.  Above all we must be wary of overconfidence in the accuracy of our predictions and always be prepared for the unexpected.